As Europe woke up this morning, America was tallying up the results of the night’s vote count. Donald Trump was comfortably ahead, having won 25 states and 246 of the required 270 electoral votes. This path to the White House was the culmination of a long and dramatic election that had been gathering momentum long before this fateful night.
The election battle and its unpredictable outcome
Pre-election polls showed equal support for Trump and his main rival, Kamala Harris, who replaced Joe Biden after he was forced to abandon his re-election. Despite the statistics, predicting the exact outcome of the election was risky: reality, as often happens, presented surprises. The 2024 campaign has become, perhaps, the most complex and intriguing in recent decades.
Trump, despite his controversial reputation, was able not only to overcome legal and political difficulties, including two impeachments and a number of criminal cases, but also to reassert his leadership among the Republicans. His campaign focused on economic problems, border security and criticism of the Biden administration’s policies. In turn, Harris relied on maintaining stability and promoting the initiatives started by the previous president.
Biden’s age and general deterioration in health, which became noticeable during his second presidential term, spoke against him from the very beginning. A disastrous performance at the debates in June and a series of mistakes, including confusing the names of world leaders, convinced his party of the need for change. The Democrats, despite the high risk, chose Kamala Harris, the first female vice president, as their new candidate.
America’s political landscape has increasingly divided into two camps over the past few years, which is especially noticeable against the backdrop of this campaign. Support for candidates was built not only on political programs, but also on antipathy towards the opponent. Democrats, despite criticism of Biden and questions about his ability to govern the country, continued to support Harris, seeing her as a way to keep Trump from returning to the White House. On the other hand, many Republicans continued to support Trump, despite his personal and political scandals. For them, Harris was a symbol of the “left tilt”, associated with fears of tightening gun control laws, support for abortion, and other liberal initiatives.
One of the factors that influenced the dynamics of the election was foreign policy events. The war in Ukraine and the recent hostilities in Gaza became the focus of voters’ attention. Harris, following Biden’s policy, declared her continued support for Kyiv and commitments to Israel. However, such statements raised questions in states with strong Muslim and Arab diasporas, such as Michigan, which undermined the Democrats’ position. On the other hand, Trump used this situation to criticize the current administration, arguing that military conflicts abroad occur due to the weakness of American diplomacy. He promised to review foreign policy and focus on US national interests.
Both candidates focused their attention on swing states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia. Here, even a small share of the vote could determine the outcome of the election. Harris tried to win the support of immigrants from Eastern Europe, which helped her attract the attention of the Polish diaspora in Pennsylvania, but this was not a decisive factor. Trump, in turn, increased support among representatives of the working classes, attracting those who were disappointed with the current economic policy.
Results and Prospects
Regardless of the final results, the 2024 elections demonstrated that America is still in a state of deep political and social division. The struggle between traditional and progressive values, economic difficulties, migration and cultural disputes – all this only intensifies the polarization of society.
